Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 0.803705 0.923414 1.051117 1.197076 1.358858 1.532259 1.731735
2025-02-23 0.598859 0.752495 0.927877 1.141344 1.392510 1.676983 2.021795
2025-03-02 0.438183 0.603250 0.804902 1.065791 1.390512 1.777363 2.268699
2025-03-09 0.340278 0.513028 0.738508 1.047585 1.452723 1.957783 2.626119
2025-03-16 0.259687 0.430728 0.669723 1.016800 1.495245 2.117964 2.974074
2025-03-23 0.212711 0.386508 0.645369 1.041580 1.612713 2.384422 3.480478
2025-03-30 0.159017 0.320750 0.579513 0.998891 1.632789 2.523303 3.830917
2025-04-06 0.122549 0.274450 0.535117 0.981176 1.685700 2.711041 4.262075
2025-04-13 0.092601 0.231851 0.488882 0.953548 1.719985 2.874248 4.670496
2025-04-20 0.074600 0.207263 0.468943 0.965568 1.816047 3.134680 5.236081
2025-04-27 0.058424 0.181569 0.442019 0.961498 1.885177 3.358945 5.762535
2025-05-04 0.047285 0.163757 0.426821 0.975987 1.986008 3.638965 6.389947
2025-05-11 0.036922 0.144706 0.406603 0.981004 2.076029 3.916339 7.043999
2025-05-18 0.026855 0.121848 0.372833 0.954408 2.107311 4.100902 7.565212
2025-05-25 0.018251 0.098431 0.331441 0.905025 2.090889 4.204184 7.962730
2025-06-01 0.013615 0.085709 0.313109 0.901831 2.161432 4.461089 8.627147
2025-06-08 0.009690 0.072752 0.290323 0.884601 2.202282 4.668467 9.220669
2025-06-15 0.007801 0.067449 0.287971 0.915033 2.342473 5.062839 10.152563
2025-06-22 0.005196 0.055670 0.261990 0.882993 2.349214 5.213619 10.672185
2025-06-29 0.003619 0.047737 0.245562 0.872031 2.399211 5.447292 11.347933
2025-07-06 0.002384 0.040011 0.226736 0.850885 2.424029 5.633901 11.948333
2025-07-13 0.001766 0.036180 0.221069 0.865083 2.529398 5.981291 12.852500
2025-07-20 0.001215 0.031660 0.210756 0.863931 2.598902 6.261880 13.646833